Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#145
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 6.9% 7.0% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 16.7% 17.1% 4.2%
Top 6 Seed 26.5% 27.0% 8.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.1% 66.9% 37.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.4% 50.3% 22.3%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 9.0
.500 or above 98.0% 98.2% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 96.6% 87.2%
Conference Champion 42.4% 42.9% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four6.7% 6.8% 5.1%
First Round63.0% 63.8% 35.0%
Second Round38.9% 39.6% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.4% 18.8% 5.0%
Elite Eight8.1% 8.3% 2.5%
Final Four3.7% 3.8% 1.0%
Championship Game1.6% 1.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 27 - 6
Quad 39 - 216 - 7
Quad 410 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 248   St. Francis (PA) W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 08, 2019 152   North Texas W 73-58 92%    
  Nov 13, 2019 20   LSU W 76-74 59%    
  Nov 17, 2019 216   Jacksonville St. W 78-60 96%    
  Nov 23, 2019 257   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 25, 2019 332   Alabama St. W 83-56 99%    
  Nov 29, 2019 12   Purdue L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 30, 2019 18   Florida St. L 71-72 47%    
  Dec 07, 2019 139   Old Dominion W 70-56 89%    
  Dec 15, 2019 125   Missouri St. W 75-63 86%    
  Dec 18, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 21, 2019 58   @ Wichita St. W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 29, 2019 209   Loyola Maryland W 82-64 94%    
  Jan 02, 2020 233   Fordham W 75-56 95%    
  Jan 05, 2020 151   @ George Mason W 75-66 77%    
  Jan 11, 2020 86   Rhode Island W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 14, 2020 60   @ Dayton W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 115   St. Bonaventure W 71-59 84%    
  Jan 21, 2020 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-65 85%    
  Jan 25, 2020 189   @ La Salle W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 28, 2020 105   Richmond W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 31, 2020 86   @ Rhode Island W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 07, 2020 52   Davidson W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 12, 2020 151   George Mason W 78-63 89%    
  Feb 15, 2020 105   @ Richmond W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 18, 2020 60   Dayton W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 21, 2020 141   @ Saint Louis W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 26, 2020 237   @ Massachusetts W 78-64 87%    
  Feb 29, 2020 190   George Washington W 77-60 92%    
  Mar 03, 2020 126   Duquesne W 80-67 85%    
  Mar 06, 2020 52   @ Davidson L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.1 9.4 12.9 10.3 4.8 42.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.6 7.5 5.4 1.2 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.8 1.6 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.2 9.9 12.4 14.4 15.1 14.2 10.3 4.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.8    4.8
17-1 99.8% 10.3    9.7 0.5
16-2 91.3% 12.9    10.0 2.8 0.1
15-3 62.3% 9.4    4.9 3.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 28.6% 4.1    1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.4% 42.4 30.9 9.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.8% 99.8% 69.1% 30.7% 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
17-1 10.3% 98.6% 58.1% 40.4% 4.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.6%
16-2 14.2% 96.4% 49.4% 46.9% 6.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 92.8%
15-3 15.1% 88.3% 39.4% 48.9% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 1.8 80.7%
14-4 14.4% 76.7% 32.0% 44.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 65.7%
13-5 12.4% 56.8% 25.0% 31.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 42.4%
12-6 9.9% 35.5% 16.1% 19.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 23.1%
11-7 7.2% 23.9% 12.3% 11.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.5 13.3%
10-8 4.9% 10.4% 7.0% 3.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 3.7%
9-9 3.1% 6.0% 4.4% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.7%
8-10 1.8% 4.7% 3.8% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.9%
7-11 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 66.1% 33.1% 33.1% 7.3 2.8 4.1 4.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.2 6.7 7.4 9.7 4.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 33.9 49.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.5 58.7 34.4 6.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 54.3 37.1 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 33.7 49.0 16.3 1.0